It's been a busy vacation

Here's some probabilities to help your next risk game.

3 attacking 2

Results

Attacker loses 0: 0.373126

Attacker loses 1: 0.338294

Attacker loses 2: 0.28858

Expected

Attacker’s expected loss: 0.915454

Defender’s expected loss: 1.084545

Attacker's advantage: 54.2273%

3 attacking 1

Results

Attacker loses 0: 0.657842

Attacker loses 1: 0.342158

Expected

Attacker’s expected loss: 0.342158

Defender’s expected loss: 0.657842

2 attacking 2

Results

Attacker loses 0: 0.233466

Attacker loses 1: 0.326058

Attacker loses 2: 0.440476

Expected

Attacker’s expected loss: 1.207011

Defender’s expected loss: 0.792989 Attacker's disadvantage: 0.396495%

2 attacking 1

Attacker loses 0: 0.579365 Expected results are the same as the percentages.

Attacker loses 1: 0.420635

1 attacking 2

Attacker loses 0: 0.253968 Expected results are the same as the percentages.

Attacker loses 1: 0.746032

1 attacking 1

Attacker loses 0: 0.416667 Expected results are the same as the percentages.

Attacker loses 1: 0.583333

General Rolling Probabilities

Attacker

High 2nd

1 0.003968 0.06746

2 0.027778 0.170635

3 0.075397 0.22619

4 0.210317 0.297619

5 0.277778 0.170635

6 0.404762 0.06746

Defender

High 2nd

1 0.027777778 0.305555556

2 0.083333333 0.25

3 0.138888889 0.194444444

4 0.194444444 0.138888889

5 0.25 0.083333333

6 0.305555556 0.027777778