It starts with Nevada. Edwards was polling over 10% but on election day only scored 5%. That's because the media had convinced the public that it was a two man race. The media's doing the same thing to the Republicans: a battle royale between Romney and McCain. This means most projections for Huckabee are probably too high. But it will depend on the moment of the early races and the early news coverage.
Romney and McCain are tied in California, the biggest prize this Tuesday. (Rassmussen) But Romney is splitting the Republican base with Huckabee. Huckabee's last gamble is in the South. Polls close on the East Coast at 5:00 pm Pacific Time; in CA they close at 11pm. Which means by the time most CA voters go out to the polls they'll hear the news that Huckabee's lost everywhere (with the possible exception of Tennessee where he's second to McCain, and Georgia, where he's statistically tied with Romney).
So a rational CA Huckabee fan will see that his boy is out by 5:00pm, see how close the race is between McCain and Romney, and decide to boost the conservative base--just like Democrats dropped Edwards in Nevada. Same-day momentum will carry the day on Super-Tuesday. If Romney doesn't pull it off, it's because he couldn't peel off Huck's supporters (and Huckabee doesn't know when to quit, possibly because he wants to punch Romney's teeth in).
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4 comments:
But what about Omaba? According to the Starlodge Ledger, talks of democratic movements towards the senate are shooting down like popsicles at a rat party.
Back to you, Paul.
Perfect. This will finally end the discussion as to whether people in California are rational.
I think we've all seen who's the popsicle and who, my friend, is at the rat party. I don't really know which one of us is where, or if it's the candidates, or really what any of this is all about, if you know what I mean. (Taps nose knowingly) And I think you do.
The next stop is Kansas. The last poll there for Republicans was in November. McCain was leading, though Guiliani was killing everywhere else. In the poll, 65% believe intelligent design should be taught in schools, so that looks good for Huckabee and Romney.
Louisiana is next, the high black population and the resentment toward republicans may swing them McCaining, while the Southernicity may help Huck.
Next is DC, Maryland and Virginia which all seem like they'll probably go to McCain, give the more moderate views. Virginia might be the exception, given it's more Southern, which could favor Romney.
So Romney doesn't have much going for him right now and Huckabee has even less. I bet Huckabee drops out the day after Romney; whenever that is. (unless the money pot runs dry, but Huckabee's eaten off the value meal this whole campaign)
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