Across the polls, about 30% of folks say they'd never vote a Mormon president. This looks pretty bad for Mormon Mitt Romney. Those 30% make up two groups: Those who think he worships God and those who think he doesn't.
24% of Americans would never vote for a conservative/god-loving/church-going candidate and see Mormons as fitting that category (I take 24% from the percentage that would never vote for a member of the Christian Coalition). Since he's too churchy the liberals won't vote for him. But the liberals don't vote for conservatives anyway, so Romney is no worse than the other Republicans with them. In the end, these poll numbers don't say anything new.
The remaining 6% or so are the real problem for Romney. These are typically evangelicals who think Mormonism a cult. Ordinarily Romney would not be able to bring them to the polls. But just as Romney looks doomed, a gallant Hillary appears on her white horse. The first commandment of evangelical politics is that the Clinton's are the devil. No one can get the Republican base to the polls like Hillary. These 6% will go to the polls and vote, not because they love Romney, but because they (like 47% of the country) abhor Hillary.
Evidence of this comes from Democrat Congressmen in close races. Many of them are privately expressing concern that if Hillary tops their ticket they will lose 3-4 points in the polls due to an influx of Republican turn-out. So in the end, the folks concerned about Romney's religion are either Democrats or so afraid of a Democrat that they'll vote for Romney in the general election anyway. God works in mysterious ways.
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4 comments:
I should have mentioned: I think Gulliani's figured this out. He can be openly pro-choice because Hillary will energize his base for him.
You underestimate her my friend. Nobody knows how to work a campagin like Cilinton & Co. America already knows the Clintons are moderates, and America wants a moderate Dem. for president this time around - and with Obma as the VP, they's unstopable.
Obama and Hillary have had way too much sparring to ever go in together. Edwards has the VP spot if Clinton takes it (hair to soften her harshness). Biden or Richardson for Obama (experience to balance foreign policy). And while I agree Clinton is Old School Carl Rove and the America wants a moderate Dem, I think Clinton is too hated to make it.
Once the primaries are over, all is forgiven, and Obama knows that VP in 2008 is Big P in 2016. Plus, who wouldn't want to hangout all day with Bill while Hillary is in the Rose Garden?!
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